Report from the Washington Post - Red Hot planet

Red-hot planet

Oceans, Ice and Air

Take a deep breath.  If you are about as old as I am, that breath contains about 25% more CO2 than your first breath.  Each breath today has about 45% more CO2 than when George Washington was alive.  CO2 is rapidly accumulating in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels.  In the ten years I have been writing about global CO2, I have had to change those figures several times.

The world is warming.  For over 150 years, scientists have known that greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane warm the atmosphere by retaining heat from the sun.  The use of fossil fuels has raised the average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere from about 280 ppm to over 400 ppm. 

“Global Warming” generally means the direct warming of the earth due to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  “Climate Change” usually refers to the myriad second-order effects which result from the retained heat.

Heat retained by greenhouse gases causes many changes: changes in atmospheric circulation, changes in the patterns of winds, rising sea level, changes in the location of deserts, changes in the amount and intensity of rainfall, decrease in annual snow cover, changes to the timing of seasons and animal migrations, warming permafrost, changes in plant hardiness zones for home gardeners, etc.   

The most direct measure of climate change is the rising heat in natural systems – the oceans, ice caps, sea ice, glaciers and atmosphere.    

Oceans

The oceans are warming.  We know because we are taking the temperature of the oceans. 

ARGO is a scientific project run by a consortium of over 30 nations begun in the early 2000s.  The project consists of nearly 4000 buoys, which dive to a depth of 2000 meters every ten days and return to the surface, taking the temperature of the ocean to an accuracy of 0.002 degrees C.  Data is broadcast to satellites.  Combining the ARGO data with early studies, we see that the upper 100 meters of ocean have warmed by 0.5 degrees C since 1970.  Temperature changes at depth are smaller, showing that the heat is originating at the ocean surface, and propagating downwards.  The rising heat content of the oceans accounts for about 95% of the heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. 

Ice

Ice is melting around the globe.

Scientific studies of Antarctica began in earnest in the International Geophysical Year, 1957.  By the 1990s, it was recognized that the Antarctic ice cap was melting.  In 2003, NASA launched the GRACE satellite experiment to measure the ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland using gravity measurements.  Combined with earlier observations, the new data shows a clear loss of ice from Antarctica.

Ice is also disappearing from Greenland.  A seasonal fluctuation is seen clearly in the data.

Arctic sea ice is disappearing.  The area covered by sea ice, also monitored by satellite, has shrunk dramatically in recent decades.  The thickness and age of the sea ice has also declined, as well as sea ice in the neighboring Bering Sea.

Continental glaciers are shrinking.  The World Glacier Monitoring Service, an agency of the United Nations, has been monitoring glaciers since the mid-1940s.  As anyone who lives in Alaska knows, glaciers have been steadily receding over recent decades, and the loss of ice can often be noticed from year-to-year. 

Overall, the volumes of ice lost from Antarctica, Greenland, Arctic Sea Ice and Continental Glaciers account for about 3% of the heat retained by greenhouse gases.

Atmosphere

The atmosphere is warming. 

The rising temperature of the atmosphere, which is sometimes questioned by climate change deniers, is actually the least significant of the earth’s heat sinks.  Only about 1% of the heat retained by greenhouse gases actually remains in the atmosphere.  Nevertheless, the atmosphere is noticeably warming.  The warmest year on record was 2016.  Seventeen out of eighteen of the warmest years in the 136-year record have occurred since 2001. 

The evidence for heat retained by greenhouse gases is comprehensive and compelling.  The amount of heat retained by greenhouse gases is in close agreement with the rising heat observed in the earth’s oceans, in melting ice, and the warming atmosphere. 

The consequence of global warming is climate change.  In future posts, we can look at the detrimental impact of excess heat on people and the environment.

References

Oceans

ARGO

http://www.argo.net/

NOAA Ocean Temperature and Heat Content

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

Ice

NASA GRACE Ice Mass, Antarctica and Greenland

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

Integrated Methods Measuring Ice Mass

http://imbie.org/

Atmosphere

NASA

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

Comments for AK Climate Action Leadership Team

The following blog post is taken from comments delivered to the Governor’s Climate Action Leadership Team, in a listening session held in Anchorage on June 21, 2018.

The Case for Climate Change Action in Alaska

Climate Change

Climate Change is real.  It is primarily caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.  It is already causing detrimental impact to people and the environment, and it will have serious consequences in the future. 

Climate change is occurring rapidly, and there may be unforeseen tipping points or feedback loops that cause even more rapid change.  Climate has a momentum of its own.  Even if we stopped all emissions of greenhouse gases today, climate change would continue to increase for decades, as the result of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.

Climate change is global.   Greenhouse gases released in any country disperse throughout the atmosphere and warm the entire globe.  Our decisions regarding carbon emissions affect people in other countries who have no say in what we do but still suffer the consequences.  The greatest harm from climate change will happen to future generations.  Likewise, they have no say in our decisions to continue business as usual or to reduce our carbon emissions.

Steps for Climate Action in Alaska

Alaska should develop an actual plan to reach milestones of 50% and 90% of electrical generation from renewable energy sources.  That plan should include engineering, cost estimates, and timetables.  The plan should use technologies that are proven, affordable, scalable, and timely.  The proposed plan must also have an acceptable environmental impact.  We should recognize that every energy project has some kind of environmental impact.  But doing nothing has a profound environmental impact, and renewable energy projects must be measured against the harsh consequences of continued climate change.  Hard choices are necessary and doing nothing is not an acceptable path.

Our electrical utilities need to work together to implement an area-wide renewable program.  We need to do what Chris Rose calls “setting the table”, in preparing for an area-wide transition to renewable energy.  We need a unified transmission system with significant upgrades.  And we need cooperative
behavior from the utilities for investments in new generation and the integration and dispatch of renewable electricity.

We need a tool for appraising the state’s progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  The draft climate action plan makes a reference to the state’s emissions in 2005, but without any measure of where we stood then, or where we stand today.  I ask the state to create a profile of the state’s CO2 and methane emissions showing volumes, locations, sources, and history so we can understand where the biggest targets are for improvement.  Industrial sites and military bases are part of our overall emissions profile.

We should consider a carbon fee and dividend system like those already enacted in other states and Canadian provinces.  Such a fee would provide incentives to reduce carbon use, and for conversion to lower carbon alternatives.  Incentives for electrical or low-emissions vehicles are also needed.  These fees recognize the externalized costs of carbon emissions.

In the global picture, there is little that Alaska can do to change the trajectory of climate change.  Therefore, we must take steps toward adaptation to a new arctic climate.  The state should prepare an overall risk assessment for communities in the state, both large and small.  The risk assessment should be publicly available as a tool for civic and state planning for adaptation.

Alaska is an exporter of fossil fuels.  As of now, the world is still dependent on fossil fuels for the global economy, and Alaska is still financially dependent on exports.  We need to take action to reduce those dependencies so that we can reduce and eliminate fossil fuel use in the shortest possible time.

We should look at ways to influence renewable energy beyond Alaska’s borders.  The best way to achieve significant change is to offer something better than the status quo. 

Alaska has world-leading experience in the integration of wind with electrical micro-grids.  We can export that experience to other remote locations, and help reduce other emissions.  Expanded global use of renewables will also create shortfalls in critical materials, such as rare-earth elements for wind power and electric vehicles.  It’s possible that Alaska can provide those necessary materials, to help reduce emissions in other places. 

Conclusion

The process to bring about additional renewable energy is simple.  We need to identify the obstacles to renewable energy and study those obstacles from the perspective of different stakeholders.  And then we need to cooperatively knock down the barriers.

David MacKay, author of Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, writes, “If we all do a little bit, we will only do a little bit.”  Token actions do not result in significant change.  We need large, serious actions to change the course of climate change.  

Governor Walker and Lt. Governor Mallott should be credited for beginning this process for the state of Alaska.  Alaska’s Congressional delegation should likewise acknowledge the truth of climate change and its human causes and consequences.

Doug Robbins   6/20/2018